RIA Novosti interview with Fyodor Lukyanov, Editor-in-Chief, Russia in Global Affairs Magazine, Member of the Presidium, Council on Foreign and Defense Policy.

The Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) has been undergoing an extensive transformation over the past few years. At the upcoming summit, SCO leaders plan to sign a statue on the admission procedure. Which of the countries seeking membership – Iran, Pakistan, India or Mongolia – has the best chances of being admitted soon, and why?

Of the applicants you named, Mongolia has fewer problems than the rest. I don’t think any of the SCO members will raise any objections. None of them has any animosity toward Ulan Bator.

As far as the rest, it’s more complicated. India and Pakistan can only be admitted together. Admitting either of them alone will be viewed as a political statement and an insult to the other country. I don’t think any SCO member wants this. Russia has closer ties with India, and China with Pakistan. They just won’t want to offend anyone. The simultaneous admission of both countries would mark a radical change in the form of the organization. It will make the SCO a South Asian organization. That would be a significant change, and one that can’t be rushed.

As for Iran, it’s clear that neither Russia nor China – and especially China – want the SCO to be in opposition to the rest of the world. No matter what the reasons for admitting Iran, whatever the actual motivation, would be viewed as a countermove against the United States. This is why in the run-up to the summit the SCO leaders stated that a country subject to international sanctions cannot become an SCO member, and these statements were obviously directed at Iran. Given the marked deterioration in Russian-Iranian relations, Tehran has little chance of being admitted in the near future.

Another focus of the summit will be Afghanistan. In their joint statement, the foreign ministers of the SCO countries noted that the situation in Afghanistan remains the main threat to security in the region. What measures can the SCO take to address this problem?

The SCO will have to answer a very important question: whether it can take real responsibility for the future of Afghanistan. Clearly, U.S. and NATO forces have failed to accomplish their mission and will soon have to withdraw from the country, which is why the issue of regional stability and security is becoming especially relevant. The SCO appears to be the only organization able to take the lead in Afghanistan after the withdrawal of NATO forces.

The SCO includes two regional superpowers, Russia and China, and also the countries of the region with geopolitical concerns about the situation in Afghanistan. And so the SCO is holding all the cards, so to speak.

However, whereas Russia believes that the SCO should play a more active role in the process and assume greater responsibility, China would like to avoid excessive involvement and responsibility, notably in the military sphere and in politics. China would like the SCO to be more of an economic organization.

There is a lot of room for debate on this issue. It raises a lot of questions, including on the future role of the SCO and its attitude towards the U.S. military presence in the region after its withdrawal from Afghanistan. Five years ago, the SCO requested that Washington set a timetable for withdrawal from Central Asia. At that point, it was obvious that Washington will have nothing to do in the region after its withdrawal from Afghanistan.

But this was five years ago, and the situation has changed since then. SCO leaders should decide whether that position is still valid or whether it needs to be reevaluated. They should discuss this issue at the summit and after it.

To sum things up, could you please describe the SCO’s prospects in the medium term?

The SCO is the biggest and most influential organization in the region, and will soon dominate it. It is also one of the most important regional organizations in the world since it is the only such organization that includes both Russia and China. Given that the international community is keeping an eye on China and that Russia is playing an increasingly important role, this organization will certainly gain even more clout.

The question is whether Russia and China will be able to find the right balance of interests within the SCO. The more clout the organization has, the more important it becomes to avoid any conflict of interests between Russia and China. They should complement, rather than oppose each other.
They will need to fine-tune their interests in the economy, several other strategic areas and politics. It will be difficult, since Russia and China both have far-reaching ambitions.

The opinions expressed in this article are the author’s and do not necessarily represent those of RIA Novosti.