NSO 2010 ytd external trade stats: For the first time in the nation’s history, Coal takes over copper  With 596.53 million usd worth of exports As forecasted by frontier securities On july 30,2010

National Statistics Office of Mongolia (NSO) has released its data for external trade  for the first nine and a half months of 2010 on Friday, October 15, 2010, 7pm Ulaanbaatar time with quantitative data clarification special courtesy to Frontier Securities . 
Commodity markets overview: exports rebound 57.9% closer to pre-crisis levels amounting to 2.12 billion USD, imports rebound 48.7 % to 2.33 billion USD compared with same period of 2009, total trade turnover by 53.0% to 4.49 billion USD, trade deficit declined by 14.7% to 168 million USD.
According to NSO, “Exports rebounded 763.7 million USD or 57.9% , imports by 763.7 million USD or 48.7%  all compared to same period of 2009.
Composition of export: exports of Tier 1 commodities duo of copper concentrate and coal continue to dominate the exports with 55.2%, coal caught up with copper with both having 27.6 % of exports.
 According to NSO “percentage wise, exports consisted from:
coal                                      27.6%                1800300 tons worth 596 532 500 USD
copper concentrate                27.6% ,     453.1 thousand tons worth 595 861 300 USD
iron ore, concentrate              8.4%              2.56 million tons worth 181 826 500 USD
gold in semi-processed/unprocessed form    6.9%       4.5 tons worth 149 003500 USD
crude                                   5.5%           1.62 million barrels worth 119 259 000 USD
greasy cashmere                  4.8%                        3006 tons worth 104 194 800 USD
zinc ore/concentrate             4.3%             86.8 thousand tons worth 93 933 800 USD
fluorspar ore, concentrate      2.6%           337.5 thousand tons worth 57 282 900 USD
combed cashmere                2.0%                         641.5 tons worth 42 715 400 USD
moly ore and concentrate      1.9%             3.7 thousand tons worth 40 388 400 USD
rest                                      8.4%
Frontier Securities forecasted on July 30,2010 that, at the current rates of growth , coal will overtake copper concentrate as a top export commodity of the country in 2010.
Mathematical average price of Mongolian coal YTD is 50.54USD per ton .Mathematical average monthly volume is 1.24 million tons per month, mathematical average monthly value of Mongolian coal exports is 62.79 million USD per month.
Based on YTD growth mathematically, volume of Mongolian coal exports in 2010 would be 14.9 million tons and value would be 753.35 million USD. This would be conservative estimate as Mongolia exported 1.62 million tons in June, 1.65 million in July, 1.83 in August, 1.29 in September and 784.3 thousand tons in first half of October 2010.
Also, as forecasted by Frontier Securities on July 30,2010, iron ore overtook gold as top third export commodity in 2010 and will remain so at current rates of growth.
Frontier Securities views that in view of this development, border, infrastructure and logistics issues for Mongolian commodity exports are of more significance now more than ever, especially for coal.