Along with the Russian invasion of Ukraine, there was talk of whether China would occupy Taiwan by force of arms. Ukraine has been under the control of Russia for the last 300 years, but this is a non-Russian ethnic group, and the Taiwanese are a Chinese ethnic group. For this reason, voices are heard saying that the Russian attack on Ukraine can be blamed in many ways, and the Chinese attack on Taiwan can be justified in many ways.

There are many reasons why the current PRC may or may not invade Taiwan.

• Taiwan Island is not a historical territory of China. This island was discovered by the Portuguese and was called the island of Formosa. The island belonged to the Dutch and the Spaniards. After the fall of the Ming Dynasty, many Chinese nobles fled to Taiwan. Later, in 1662 during the Manchu Qing Dynasty, the Manchus conquered the island and annexed it. Today, only 3 percent of the island's total population of 23 million is indigenous. This is the race of the Austronesians or Pacific Islanders.

• 1895 The Chinese were defeated by the Sino-Japanese War, and according to the Shimonoseki treaty, Taiwan Island became part of Japan. Until the end of World War II, the island was occupied by the Japanese. During the Japanese occupation, the foundations of today's Taiwanese infrastructure, electrical grid, railways, subways, sewage treatment plants, and education system were created. In addition, the range of crops that had previously been limited to rice expanded, and the company became one of the world's largest sugar suppliers. It was the Japanese who modernized Taiwan and forced it to move forward.

• Having suffered a defeat in the war, Japan returned the islands of the Pacific Ocean to the Kuomintang government. But they were soon defeated by Mao's communists and fled to Taiwan. It is said that half of the two million Chinese who fled there were Kuomintang soldiers. When escaping, they took away cultural property, a large amount of jewelry, and the party-state archive. Now the jewels are stored in the National Palace Museum in Taipei. The National Palace Museum is considered the largest in the world. An independent state and government of the Chinese Kuomintang Party were established in Taiwan. They do not recognize the communist state established in Beijing in 1949, temporarily reside on the island of Taiwan, and firmly believe that in the future, the capital will again be moved to Beijing. However, the Communists in Beijing, of course, did not accept the government of Taiwan and were firm in the opinion that it would soon be annexed to the mainland.

• China was one of the main founding countries of the UN in 1945 and has been a permanent member of the UN Security Council from the very beginning. When the Communist government was established on the mainland, theKuomintang who had fled to the island remained to maintain their position in the United Nations. But the Republic of China, or Taiwan, with a population of only ten million people, it was reputedly pointless to represent the People's Republic of China with nearly a billion people for many years, so they were kicked out and replaced by a communist government in Beijing. This happened in 1971.

• In 1972, when US President Nixon visited Beijing, relations between the two countries began normalizing. Subsequently, in 1979, President Carter adopted the One China principle, severed diplomatic ties withTaipei, and opened an embassy in Beijing. But the Americans did not leave Taiwan. Under an agreement between the United States and Taiwan that same year, the Americans agreed to defend the independence, democracy, and freedom of the island in a non-diplomatic context, always cooperate along military lines, and provide direct military assistance in case of threats to the island. At that time, Beijing also agreed to this.

• From the mid-1980s, the Kuomintang's sole rule in Taiwan began to falter. There emerged an opposition party, the Democratic Party. There is a concept of " 1992 consensus " between mainland China and Taiwan. Both sides will adhere to the "one China" principle, but how to interpret it is up to them. The Democrats won the 2000 elections. They flatly rejected this "1992 consensus". Since then, there have been talks about Taiwan's independence and joining the UN. Since then, Chinese threats against them have become more aggressive. The Kuomintang Party won the 2008 elections, and Ma Yinji became president. He stated that he would adhere to the "1992 Consensus," and in 2015, Ma Yingzi and Xi Jinping met. In general, there is an understanding that the status quo of Taiwan will continue until 2049, and the decision will remain with future generations. However, in the 2016 elections, the Democratic Progressive Party returned to power, and a woman named Yeni Tsai Ing-wen was elected president. There was also talk of an independent Taiwan, which increased pressure from the mainland.

This is the level of the current conflict between China, the US, and Taiwan. But what is the likelihood of armed conflict between these countries?

1. Taiwan was the first and most active supporter of Deng Xiaoping's reforms. In the first few years, the Taiwanese invested $150 million in China. Today, China's economy is somewhat dependent on Taiwan.

2. The economic interdependence between the US and China is very high. Trade turnover reaches trillions of dollars. Broken relationships are bad for both parties. China bought most of the US government bonds. For example, China buys $40 billion worth of grains, especially soybeans, from the United States. America is China's biggest buyer. Not to mention armed conflict, the two countries would suffer heavy losses, if not economic collapse, in the event of a mutual trade embargo. _

3. China has been the most friendly country in Asia since the founding of the United States. In 1900, when eight countries invaded China and imposed huge fines on it, the United States did not accept any of them. In the Washington Conference of 1920 (The Nine-Power Treaty 1922) affirmed the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the Republic of China as per the Open Door Policy. The act was initiated by the United States and accepted by all countries. In World War II, China, along with the United States and Britain, fought against Japan. Relations between the two countries cooled when Mao's communists came to power, but relations between the US and China improved during the difficult period of Sino -Soviet hostilities. It can be said that the historical relationship between the two countries, America and China, is optimistic. There were many bad and cold deeds, but they soon made up and easily understood each other.

4. Taiwan is a very well-armed country for its size and actual borders. The military potential of Taiwan is one of the best in the world. In addition, Taiwan is one of the main bases and the most important allies of NATO and especially the US in Asia. An attack on Taiwan would not only isolate China from the world's most powerful economy but also put it on a collision course with a powerful military alliance. This is not what the Chinese want.

5. Traditionally, successive Chinese governments have not fought overseas and avoided foreign incursions. Chinese imperialism has always been associated in history with the northern nomads who occupied China. The Mongol Yuan dynasty invaded Japan, Korea, Vietnam, Java, and Burma. The Qing Dynasty, ruled by nomadic Manchus, invaded Korea,  Dzungar khanate, and Xinjiang.

6. Since 1949, China -Taiwan relations have been almost constantly hostile and have never reached the point of armed conflict. The PRC has continuously threatened Taiwan and, according to some researchers, issued more than 100 stern warnings about its belligerent occupation. If these two Chinese go to war, China will undoubtedly win in the current situation but, in return, will suffer terrible losses. Perhaps Shanghai, one of the world's largest trading centers, could be razed. Neither side would want such a victory for Piri.

7. For China, Taiwan has been an essential factor in resolving internal conflicts and reconciling groups fighting for state rights. It can be seen that it continues from Mao through Deng Xiaoping and Jiang Zemin to the current Xi Jinping. Observers note that President Xi's position has been shaken, and he may soon step down. In such a case, one of the traditional ways to strengthen the role and avoid instability is to act as if Taiwan is preparing to attack and threaten Taiwan more. It seems necessary to increase the propaganda about the dangers of Taiwan and its defender, the United States.

8. China has been involved in island disputes with Japan, Vietnam, and the Philippines in the Pacific due to its interests in the Straits of Malacca, the world's largest trading zone. It will be followed by a wormhole to overthrow US hegemony in the Pacific. But will Taiwan, although a staunch US ally, play such a game? For better or worse, in the end, they are one nation.

In a word, China is not Russia, and Taiwan is not Ukraine!

August 3, 2022