National Statistics Office of Mongolia ( www.nso.mn )external trade data for first 45 days of 2011 or as of February 15,2011
Total external trade turnover YTD up 69percents to 722M USD, exports up 27percents to 282M USD, imports up 210percents to 440M USD, trade deficit is 158M USD, 174M USD yoy increase
Exports consisted (all compared yoy):

Tier 1 commodities

copper concentrate(EMC,state-owned) 67.2K tons – 112.5M USD, 40percents of total exports, 35percents yoy increase in value while only 2.4percents yoy increase in volume

coal(MMC(975),MAK(private),SGQ/1878,TTL(MSE-listed), etc) 744 400 tons – 45 618 00M USD, 16.2percents of exports, 13percents yoy increase in value while 21percents yoy decrease in volume

Tier 2 commodities

iron ore,concentrate(Iron Mining JV,Altai Khuder,Monzol(all private)etc)354.7K tns-29 842 400M USD, 10.6percents of exports,317percents increase value while 271percents increase in volume
zinc ore/concentrate(NFC JV) 20.3tons worth 22.6M USD, 8percents of exports
crude (PTR,Donsheng,etc) 204.7K barrels worth 18.2M USD,8percents of exports

Tier 3 commodities
gold (CG, etc) 0.3 tons worth 10M USD,3.6percents of exports
fluorspar ore, concentrate (Monros, etc)43.8K tons worth 7.6M USD,2.7percents of exports
moly ore and concentrate(EMC,state-owned)0.4K tons worth 4.8M USD,1.7percents of exports

REST OF EXPORTS 10.8percents

COAL STATS RESEARCH:

Coal prices

Value of Mongolian coal exports YTD is 45 618 000 USD compared to 2010 ‘s similar period’s 40 424 300 USD. Mathematical average price of Mongolian coal YTD is 61.28USD, 2.15 USD mom increase, in line with Frontier Securities forecast that this up trend will be supported throughout 2011

In 2010 similar period average price was 42.89USD per ton.

Math average price for Mongolian coal for 2010 was 52.75USD, in crisis 2009 it was 43.05USD, in pre-crisis 2008 it was 44.29USD, in 2007 it was 35.55USD.

MMC said in its IPO prospectus(October 2010) that

“From July 1, 2010 to the Latest Practicable Date, the weighted average selling price per tonne under our contracts was USusd76.72.”

Coal exports volume

Volume YTD is 744400 tons compared to 2010 similar period’s volume of 942500 tns.

Volume for 2010 was 16 635 100 tons, in crisis 2009 it was 7 113 200 tons, in pre-crisis 2008 it was 4 169 300 tons, in 2007 it was 3 269 000 tons.

Frontier Securities forecasts coal exports in 2011 at 30M tns and value in a range of 1.8B USD.

Coal Market share

MMC’s exports in 2010 are 3.92 million tons. Frontier Securities estimates MMC 2010 coal revenues to top 300M USD.

MAK’s exports in 2010 are 5.5 M tns, Frontier Securities estimates MAK 2010 coal revenues in a range of 215-250M USD.

Frontier Securities estimates TTL 2010 exports between 2-3M tns and 2010 coal revenues in a range of 100-150M USD.

Frontier Securities estimates SGQ/1878 2010 exports at 2.37M and 2010 coal revenues in a range of 100M USD.

Frontier Securities estimates combined market share of rest of small 58 coal operations at a range of 1.8M tns and combined revenues in range of 100M USD.

National Statistics Office of Mongolia

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